Leeds 1-0 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leeds vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Leeds welcome Crystal Palace to Elland Road. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Leeds — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Leeds have posted 1W 3D 2L at Elland Road — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Crystal Palace have posted 1W 3D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Leeds at 1.00 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Leeds in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leeds 69% and Crystal Palace 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 46% | Crystal Palace 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.21 xG and Crystal Palace 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 0.802 / defence 1.126 | Crystal Palace attack 1.092 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.323. Crystal Palace bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Leeds's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Leeds games / 13 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 28% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 46%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 2.17. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crystal Palace at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 67% | Crystal Palace 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 28% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Leeds 1.21 / Crystal Palace 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 0.802 / def 1.126 | Crystal Palace attack 1.092 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Crystal Palace xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Leeds vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 20:15 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Leeds 1 - 0 Crystal Palace.
Where is Leeds vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Crystal Palace part of?
Leeds vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 28% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Leeds and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Crystal Palace?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leeds and Crystal Palace in?
Leeds (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leeds's attack rating (0.80) and Crystal Palace's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
28%
3.60
26%
3.88
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.84
1.63
Crystal Palace xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
5%
18.32
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Leeds and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Leeds and 1.63 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leeds's recent record stands at 2W 6D 5L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 3L across 13 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leeds on 0.92 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leeds have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Leeds are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.46 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leeds have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 3W 7D 3L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Crystal Palace away?
Leeds's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 1.00 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Leeds or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leeds and Crystal Palace runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when Crystal Palace won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leeds's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leeds
2
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Crystal Palace?
From 6 meetings on record, Leeds have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 67%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Leeds and 83% for Crystal Palace. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Crystal Palace?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Leeds's games and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leeds vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Leeds's matches and 83% of Crystal Palace's.
Shock result as Leeds defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.21 xG and Crystal Palace 1.63 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crystal Palace landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Crystal Palace attack 1.09 / defence 1.33, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 28% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 46%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Leeds win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 46%, Crystal Palace 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 0.92 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.