Fulham 0-4 Manchester City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Manchester City (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fulham face Manchester City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Manchester City make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Fulham (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Manchester City have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Manchester City's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Manchester City arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Manchester City have the stronger record — 3 wins to Fulham's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Fulham 1–5 Manchester City — a Manchester City win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Manchester City have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Manchester City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 82%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Manchester City 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 63% | Manchester City 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.10 xG and Manchester City 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.932 / defence 0.869 | Manchester City attack 1.460 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.471. Manchester City bring a tight defence (rating 0.655, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Fulham's projected output down. Manchester City have an above-average attack rating of 1.460, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. Data: built from Fulham's last 74 games and Manchester City's last 73.
Result probabilities: Fulham 21% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 55%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.69 | Draw 4.14 | Manchester City 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Manchester City (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Manchester City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 50% (last 10 home games) | Manchester City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Manchester City | Competition: Premier League, matchday 37 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 21% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Fulham 1.10 / Manchester City 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.932 / def 0.869 | Manchester City attack 1.460 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Manchester City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Manchester City xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Manchester City FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Manchester City kick off?
Fulham vs Manchester City kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Manchester City?
Fulham 0 - 4 Manchester City.
Where is Fulham vs Manchester City being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Manchester City part of?
Fulham vs Manchester City is a Premier League fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 21% chance of winning, Manchester City a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Manchester City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fulham and Manchester City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fulham's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Manchester City's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Manchester City's attack (1.46x) against Fulham's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 74 games and Manchester City's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
21%
4.69
24%
4.14
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.96
1.86
Manchester City xG
4.69
21%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
3%
30.27
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Manchester City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Fulham and 1.86 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Manchester City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 27W 14D 32L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Manchester City's form line: 53W 12D 8L from 73 games, 2.34 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Manchester City are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 36 home games (17W 6D 13L).
On the road, Manchester City have gone 23W 6D 7L from their last 36 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Manchester City are on 2.48 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Manchester City in 60%.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Manchester City
Current Season
Fulham (Home) vs Manchester City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Current Season
Manchester City
Current Season
❓ Fulham vs Manchester City Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Manchester City in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 14D 32L in their last 73 games (1.30 PPG), while Manchester City have gone 53W 12D 8L in their last 73 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Manchester City away?
Manchester City's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.58 PPG; Manchester City away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Fulham or Manchester City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Manchester City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Manchester City have taken the most recent 8 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester City won Manchester City 5-1 Fulham on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 0W 0D 4L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Manchester City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fulham
0
Draws
8
Manchester City
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Manchester City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 0, Manchester City have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Manchester City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2026: Manchester City 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Manchester City?
Manchester City have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Manchester City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 53%, Manchester City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fulham and 58% for Manchester City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Manchester City in 31%; Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Manchester City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Manchester City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Manchester City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fulham's recent matches and 56% of Manchester City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fulham and Manchester City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fulham's matches and 58% of Manchester City's.
Do Fulham and Manchester City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Fulham's recent matches and 72% of Manchester City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Manchester City run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester City beat Fulham 0-4 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.10 xG and Manchester City 1.86 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Manchester City outscored their 1.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Manchester City attack 1.46 / defence 0.66, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 21% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 55%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 63%, Manchester City 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester City's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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