Fulham 2-1 Brighton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fulham at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Brighton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Brighton at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brighton stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brighton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Brighton have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fulham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fulham: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Brighton, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Fulham a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Brighton in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 32% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 67% and Brighton 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 55% | Brighton 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.70 xG and Brighton 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.136 / defence 1.088 | Brighton attack 1.021 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.202. Data: 60 Fulham games / 60 Brighton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 43% | Draw 29% | Brighton 28%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Brighton 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Brighton 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 43% | Draw 29% | Brighton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Fulham 1.70 / Brighton 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.136 / def 1.088 | Brighton attack 1.021 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Fulham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Brighton xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Brighton kick off?
Fulham vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Fulham 2 - 1 Brighton.
Where is Fulham vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Brighton part of?
Fulham vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 43% chance of winning, Brighton a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Fulham and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
Record (7 meetings): Fulham 4W | Draws 2 | Brighton 1W.
What form are Fulham and Brighton in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Brighton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.14x the league average against Brighton's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.43
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.03
1.33
Brighton xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
5%
19.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Fulham and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Fulham and 1.33 for Brighton, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 24W 13D 23L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 15L across 60 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Brighton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.42 PPG, Brighton on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 13W 7D 10L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.63 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Brighton in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Brighton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Brighton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 24W 13D 23L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Brighton have gone 23W 22D 15L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Brighton away?
Fulham's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.53 PPG; Brighton away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fulham
2
Draws
1
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 5, Brighton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Brighton?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fulham at 67%, Brighton at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Fulham and 63% for Brighton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Brighton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fulham's games and 67% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Brighton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fulham's matches and 63% of Brighton's.
Do Fulham and Brighton tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Brighton in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Brighton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Brighton 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.70 xG and Brighton 1.33 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Brighton attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 43% | Draw 29% | Brighton 28%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Brighton 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Brighton's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.42 PPG, Brighton 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.