Fulham 3-0 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Brighton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Brighton at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brighton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brighton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Brighton have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Fulham) versus 1.30 (Brighton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fulham, 0 for Brighton and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Brighton in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 55% and Brighton 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 64% | Brighton 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.90 xG and Brighton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.062 / defence 0.831 | Brighton attack 0.982 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.557. Data: 64 Fulham games / 64 Brighton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 52% | Draw 23% | Brighton 25%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Brighton 4.00. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Brighton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 52% | Draw 23% | Brighton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Fulham 1.90 / Brighton 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.062 / def 0.831 | Brighton attack 0.982 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: Fulham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Brighton xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Brighton kick off?
Fulham vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Fulham 3 - 0 Brighton.
Where is Fulham vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Brighton part of?
Fulham vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 52% chance of winning, Brighton a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fulham and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 1 | Brighton 0W.
What form are Fulham and Brighton in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Brighton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.06x the league average against Brighton's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.26
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.17
1.27
Brighton xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
4%
26.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Fulham and 1.27 for Brighton, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 24W 12D 28L from 64 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 19L across 64 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Brighton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.31 PPG, Brighton on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 15W 6D 11L from 32 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 12W 7D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.89 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton in 69%.
Last 64 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Brighton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Brighton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 24W 12D 28L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while Brighton have gone 28W 17D 19L in their last 64 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Brighton away?
Fulham's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.59 PPG; Brighton away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fulham
2
Draws
1
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 5, Brighton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Brighton?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fulham at 56%, Brighton at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Fulham and 75% for Brighton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Brighton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fulham's games and 75% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Brighton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 75% of Brighton's.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Brighton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Brighton 3-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.90 xG and Brighton 1.27 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brighton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against Brighton attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 52% | Draw 23% | Brighton 25%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 64%, Brighton 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Brighton's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.31 PPG, Brighton 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.