Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Crystal Palace encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Crystal Palace at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.20 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Everton have won 3, Crystal Palace 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with Everton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Crystal Palace trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Crystal Palace 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 45% | Crystal Palace 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.75 xG and Crystal Palace 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.823 / defence 0.822 | Crystal Palace attack 0.771 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.580. Crystal Palace bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Everton games / 62 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 54% | Draw 25% | Crystal Palace 21%. Fair-value odds: Everton 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Crystal Palace 4.76. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Everton 40% | Crystal Palace 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Monday 19 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 54% | Draw 25% | Crystal Palace 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Everton 1.75 / Crystal Palace 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.823 / def 0.822 | Crystal Palace attack 0.771 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Everton (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Crystal Palace xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Everton vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 19 February 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton 1 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Everton vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Crystal Palace part of?
Everton vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 54% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Everton and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Record (5 meetings): Everton 3W | Draws 1 | Crystal Palace 1W.
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.82x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.97
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Everton xG
Total xG
2.75
1.00
Crystal Palace xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
4%
27.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Everton and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Everton and 1.00 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Everton have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 16W 17D 29L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace's form line: 17W 18D 27L from 62 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.05 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.06 PPG from 31 outings (9W 6D 16L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 7W 8D 16L from 31 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.08 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 17D 29L in their last 62 games (1.05 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 17W 18D 27L in their last 62 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Crystal Palace away?
Everton's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.06 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Everton
3
Draws
1
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 6, Crystal Palace have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 39%, Crystal Palace 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Everton) and 45% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 32% of games; Crystal Palace in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Everton's recent matches and 48% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Everton's recent games and 45% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton and Crystal Palace finished level at 1-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.75 xG and Crystal Palace 1.00 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.82 / defence 0.82 against Crystal Palace attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 54% | Draw 25% | Crystal Palace 21%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 45%, Crystal Palace 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.05 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.