Everton 0-0 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Brentford in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Brentford (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brentford's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Everton, 1.30 for Brentford — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Everton, 2 for Brentford and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Brentford — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 41% versus Brentford 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 43% | Brentford 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.50 xG and Brentford 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.854 / defence 0.964 | Brentford attack 0.897 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.345. Data: 49 Everton games / 49 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Brentford 28%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Brentford 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 30% | Brentford 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Brentford 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Everton 1.50 / Brentford 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.854 / def 0.964 | Brentford attack 0.897 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Everton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Brentford xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Brentford kick off?
Everton vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Brentford?
Everton 0 - 0 Brentford.
Where is Everton vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Brentford part of?
Everton vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 43% chance of winning, Brentford a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Everton and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
Record (6 meetings): Everton 3W | Draws 1 | Brentford 2W.
What form are Everton and Brentford in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Brentford (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Everton vs Brentford?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.85) and Brentford's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brentford's attack (0.90x) against Everton's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.42
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Everton xG
Total xG
2.66
1.16
Brentford xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Everton and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Everton and 1.16 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton's recent record stands at 15W 13D 21L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 24L across 49 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Everton against 1.12 for Brentford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton have managed 9W 6D 9L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 5W 2D 17L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brentford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.59 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford in 71%.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Brentford in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Brentford have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Brentford away?
Everton's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.38 PPG; Brentford away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Everton or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brentford in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brentford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
4
Draws
3
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Brentford have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Brentford 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 38%, Brentford 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 67% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Everton's recent matches and 62% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton's recent games and 67% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 12, as Everton and Brentford drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.50 xG and Brentford 1.16 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Brentford landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Brentford attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Brentford 28%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 43%, Brentford 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brentford's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.18 PPG, Brentford 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.