Everton 0-0 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Everton welcome Aston Villa to Goodison Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Goodison Park this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Goodison Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aston Villa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.60 PPG versus Aston Villa's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Aston Villa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Everton's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–4 with Aston Villa winning.
It is worth noting that Aston Villa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Everton in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aston Villa in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Aston Villa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 47% | Aston Villa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.46 xG and Aston Villa 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.828 / defence 0.958 | Aston Villa attack 1.036 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.357. Data: 58 Everton games / 58 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 40% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 35%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Aston Villa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Everton 30% | Aston Villa 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 40% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Everton 1.46 / Aston Villa 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.828 / def 0.958 | Aston Villa attack 1.036 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Everton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Aston Villa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Aston Villa kick off?
Everton vs Aston Villa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Aston Villa?
Everton 0 - 0 Aston Villa.
Where is Everton vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Aston Villa part of?
Everton vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 40% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Everton and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Aston Villa?
Record (5 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Aston Villa 5W.
What form are Everton and Aston Villa in?
Everton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Aston Villa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.83x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aston Villa's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
40%
2.51
25%
3.96
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Everton xG
Total xG
2.80
1.35
Aston Villa xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Everton and 1.35 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Everton have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 16W 14D 28L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa's form line: 31W 10D 17L from 58 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aston Villa are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (9W 4D 16L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 10W 7D 12L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aston Villa's season.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.62 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 14D 28L in their last 58 games (1.07 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 31W 10D 17L in their last 58 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Aston Villa away?
Aston Villa's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.07 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Aston Villa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Aston Villa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Aston Villa specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
2
Draws
7
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Aston Villa?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 1, Aston Villa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Aston Villa 0-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 38%, Aston Villa 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Everton) and 48% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 31% of games; Aston Villa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Everton's recent matches and 55% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Everton's recent games and 48% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton and Aston Villa finished level at 0-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.46 xG and Aston Villa 1.35 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Aston Villa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against Aston Villa attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 40% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 35%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 47%, Aston Villa 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aston Villa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.