Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crystal Palace and Fulham meet at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crystal Palace have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace's home record at Selhurst Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fulham (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fulham have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fulham are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Crystal Palace, 2 for Fulham and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Crystal Palace winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 54% versus Fulham 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 46% | Fulham 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.18 xG and Fulham 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.719 / defence 0.991 | Fulham attack 0.983 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.279. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Crystal Palace games / 56 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 27% | Fulham 38%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Crystal Palace 50% | Fulham 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 27% | Fulham 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Crystal Palace 1.18 / Fulham 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.719 / def 0.991 | Fulham attack 0.983 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Fulham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Fulham xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Fulham kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Fulham kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 1 January 2026 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Fulham part of?
Crystal Palace vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 35% chance of winning, Fulham a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crystal Palace and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Fulham?
Record (7 meetings): Crystal Palace 2W | Draws 3 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Fulham in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.72) and Fulham's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.98x) against Crystal Palace's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.64
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.43
1.25
Fulham xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.25 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 20W 19D 17L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 23W 11D 22L from 56 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.43 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 11W 5D 12L from 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.41 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Fulham in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 20W 19D 17L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Fulham have gone 23W 11D 22L in their last 56 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.25 PPG; Fulham away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fulham in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
4
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 2, Fulham have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 57%, Fulham 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crystal Palace) and 54% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Crystal Palace's games and 68% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 54% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and Fulham tend to score early?
Crystal Palace have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fulham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crystal Palace and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace and Fulham finished level at 1-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.18 xG and Fulham 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 27% | Fulham 38%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, Fulham 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.41 PPG, Fulham 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.