Crystal Palace 0-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Everton's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crystal Palace at 1.20 PPG versus Everton's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Crystal Palace, 2 for Everton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Everton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Everton in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 49% versus Everton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 46% | Everton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.26 xG and Everton 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.718 / defence 0.902 | Everton attack 0.767 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.253. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Crystal Palace games / 69 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 45% | Draw 29% | Everton 26%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Everton 3.85. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 40% | Everton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 45% | Draw 29% | Everton 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Crystal Palace 1.26 / Everton 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.718 / def 0.902 | Everton attack 0.767 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Everton xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Everton kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Crystal Palace 0 - 0 Everton.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Everton part of?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 45% chance of winning, Everton a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Crystal Palace and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Record (3 meetings): Crystal Palace 1W | Draws 0 | Everton 2W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Everton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.72) and Everton's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.45
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.12
0.87
Everton xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.87 for Everton, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 24D 25L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 17W 15D 37L from 69 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.22 PPG, Everton on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.44 PPG from 34 outings (12W 13D 9L).
On the road, Everton have gone 3W 10D 21L from 34 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.97 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 20W 24D 25L in their last 69 games (1.22 PPG), while Everton have gone 17W 15D 37L in their last 69 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Everton away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.44 PPG; Everton away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crystal Palace and Everton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Everton specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
6
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 1, Everton have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 50%, Everton 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Crystal Palace) and 53% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 29% of games; Everton in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 53% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 53% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Crystal Palace's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace and Everton finished level at 0-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.26 xG and Everton 0.87 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Everton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.72 / defence 0.90 against Everton attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 45% | Draw 29% | Everton 26%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, Everton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.22 PPG, Everton 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.