Crystal Palace 1-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Crystal Palace welcome Brentford to Selhurst Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Selhurst Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Brentford — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Brentford have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brentford away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Crystal Palace) versus 1.50 (Brentford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Crystal Palace, 0 for Brentford and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Crystal Palace trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Brentford trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 52% versus Brentford 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 50% | Brentford 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.83 xG and Brentford 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.962 / defence 0.936 | Brentford attack 1.156 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.227. Data: 42 Crystal Palace games / 42 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 49% | Draw 23% | Brentford 28%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Brentford 3.57. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 30% | Brentford 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 49% | Draw 23% | Brentford 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Crystal Palace 1.83 / Brentford 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.962 / def 0.936 | Brentford attack 1.156 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Brentford xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Brentford kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Brentford kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Brentford.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Brentford part of?
Crystal Palace vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 49% chance of winning, Brentford a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Crystal Palace and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Brentford?
Record (2 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 2 | Brentford 0W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Brentford in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Brentford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.96) and Brentford's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.38
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
3.16
1.33
Brentford xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.33 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crystal Palace's recent record stands at 12W 16D 14L from 42 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 19L across 42 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Brentford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.24 PPG, Brentford on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crystal Palace have managed 8W 8D 5L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.36 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Early Season
Brentford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Brentford in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 12W 16D 14L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Brentford have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Brentford away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.52 PPG; Brentford away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
6
Draws
2
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Brentford?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 2, Brentford have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 48%, Brentford 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Crystal Palace) and 71% (Brentford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Brentford in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Brentford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Crystal Palace's games and 67% of Brentford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Crystal Palace's matches and 71% of Brentford's.
Crystal Palace and Brentford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace and Brentford finished level at 1-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.83 xG and Brentford 1.33 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Brentford attack 1.16 / defence 1.20, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 49% | Draw 23% | Brentford 28%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 50%, Brentford 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.24 PPG, Brentford 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brentford (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.