Crystal Palace 1-2 Brentford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brentford at 40%, yet in-form Crystal Palace provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crystal Palace vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Crystal Palace welcome Brentford to Selhurst Park in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crystal Palace at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Brentford — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brentford away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Crystal Palace carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Crystal Palace's games and 60% of Brentford's (from Crystal Palace's last 10 home games and Brentford's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Crystal Palace have won 1, Brentford 1, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Crystal Palace 1–2 Brentford — a Brentford win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crystal Palace trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Brentford trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crystal Palace 58% and Brentford 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 50% | Brentford 68%). Note also that Brentford surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Crystal Palace recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.23 xG and Brentford 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.864 / defence 1.027 | Brentford attack 0.898 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.556. Data: built from Crystal Palace's last 60 games and Brentford's last 60.
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 31% | Draw 29% | Brentford 40%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 3.26 | Draw 3.45 | Brentford 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brentford as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crystal Palace (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crystal Palace 60% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 31% | Draw 29% | Brentford 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Crystal Palace 1.23 / Brentford 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.864 / def 1.027 | Brentford attack 0.898 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.556 • Poisson stance: Brentford (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Brentford xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Brentford FAQs
What time does Crystal Palace vs Brentford kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Brentford kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Brentford.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Brentford part of?
Crystal Palace vs Brentford is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 31% chance of winning, Brentford a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Crystal Palace and Brentford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crystal Palace vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.86) and Brentford's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crystal Palace's last 60 games and Brentford's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.45
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.66
1.43
Brentford xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crystal Palace vs Brentford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.43 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crystal Palace's recent record stands at 19W 19D 22L from 60 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 29L across 60 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.27 PPG, Brentford on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crystal Palace have managed 10W 9D 10L from their last 29 home games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 6W 4D 19L across their last 29 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.60 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford in 68%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Brentford
Blended
Crystal Palace (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crystal Palace
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Crystal Palace vs Brentford Form FAQs
What form are Crystal Palace and Brentford in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 19W 19D 22L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Brentford have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Brentford away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.34 PPG; Brentford away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
6
Draws
2
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Crystal Palace vs Brentford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Brentford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Crystal Palace have won 2, Brentford have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Brentford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 59%, Brentford 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Crystal Palace and 66% for Brentford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brentford in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Brentford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crystal Palace and Brentford matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Crystal Palace's games and 59% of Brentford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crystal Palace and Brentford matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Crystal Palace's matches and 66% of Brentford's.
Do Crystal Palace and Brentford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 72% of Brentford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brentford edge out Crystal Palace 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Crystal Palace 1-2 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.23 xG and Brentford 1.43 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Brentford attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 31% | Draw 29% | Brentford 40%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 50%, Brentford 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.27 PPG, Brentford 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 23
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →