Burnley 1-0 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolves at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Burnley welcome Wolves to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wolves — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wolves's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burnley at 1.10 PPG versus Wolves's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Burnley's 20% and Wolves's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burnley, 0 for Wolves and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Wolves trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 44% versus Wolves 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 34% | Wolves 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.76 xG and Wolves 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.767 / defence 1.119 | Wolves attack 0.681 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.334. Burnley's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Burnley games / 32 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 27% | Draw 33% | Wolves 41%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Wolves 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Burnley's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolves as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 20% | Wolves 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 27% | Draw 33% | Wolves 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Burnley 0.76 / Wolves 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.767 / def 1.119 | Wolves attack 0.681 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Wolves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Wolves xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Wolves kick off?
Burnley vs Wolves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Burnley 1 - 0 Wolves.
Where is Burnley vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Wolves part of?
Burnley vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 27% chance of winning, Wolves a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Burnley and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Wolves 0W.
What form are Burnley and Wolves in?
Burnley (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Wolves (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.77x the league average against Wolves's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
27%
3.76
33%
3.05
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.78
1.02
Wolves xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 17.2 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Burnley and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Burnley and 1.02 for Wolves, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 32 games, going 5W 13D 14L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (15W 4D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Wolves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 4W 6D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 1.62 points per game from 16 outings (8W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 1.03 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Wolves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Wolves in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 5W 13D 14L in their last 32 games (0.88 PPG), while Wolves have gone 15W 4D 13L in their last 32 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Wolves away?
Wolves's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.12 PPG; Wolves away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Burnley or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Wolves in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Burnley's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
3
Draws
1
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Wolves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Wolves?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Burnley 38% BTTS, Wolves 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Burnley and 19% for Wolves.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Wolves in 44%; Burnley have failed to score in 50% of games; Wolves in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Burnley's recent matches and 25% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Burnley's recent games and 19% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Wolves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Wolves 1-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.76 xG and Wolves 1.02 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wolves landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Wolves attack 0.68 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 27% | Draw 33% | Wolves 41%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 34%, Wolves 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolves's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolves arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.