Burnley 1-1 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Wolves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Burnley welcome Wolves to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Wolves — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wolves's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolves — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Wolves and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Wolves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Wolves trading profile (67 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus Wolves 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 61% | Wolves 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.16 xG and Wolves 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.682 / defence 1.314 | Wolves attack 0.856 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.532. Burnley's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Burnley games / 67 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 24% | Draw 27% | Wolves 49%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Wolves 2.04. Wolves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolves as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 40% | Wolves 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 24% | Draw 27% | Wolves 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Burnley 1.16 / Wolves 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.682 / def 1.314 | Wolves attack 0.856 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Wolves (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Wolves xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Wolves kick off?
Burnley vs Wolves kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Burnley 1 - 1 Wolves.
Where is Burnley vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Wolves part of?
Burnley vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 24% chance of winning, Wolves a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Burnley and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
Record (3 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 1 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Burnley and Wolves in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Wolves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.68x the league average against Wolves's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
24%
4.16
27%
3.69
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.88
1.72
Wolves xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
4%
23.32
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Burnley and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Burnley and 1.72 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 67 games, going 30W 15D 22L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.22 PPG from 67 outings (23W 13D 31L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.57 PPG, Wolves on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 17W 5D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.82 points per game from 34 outings (7W 7D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wolves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 1.09 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Wolves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Wolves in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 30W 15D 22L in their last 67 games (1.57 PPG), while Wolves have gone 23W 13D 31L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Wolves away?
Burnley's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.65 PPG; Wolves away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Burnley or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wolves in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Burnley's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
3
Draws
1
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Wolves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Wolves?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 44%, Wolves 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Burnley and 59% for Wolves. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Wolves in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burnley's recent matches and 56% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Burnley's matches and 59% of Wolves's.
Burnley and Wolves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 31, as Burnley and Wolves drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.16 xG and Wolves 1.72 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.68 / defence 1.31 against Wolves attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 24% | Draw 27% | Wolves 49%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 61%, Wolves 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolves's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.57 PPG, Wolves 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.