Burnley 1-3 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Newcastle (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Newcastle.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Newcastle make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 December 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Newcastle are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Newcastle have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Burnley's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Newcastle winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Newcastle have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 38% versus Newcastle 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 38% | Newcastle 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.89 xG and Newcastle 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.633 / defence 1.100 | Newcastle attack 0.836 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.252. Burnley's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Burnley games / 56 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 28% | Draw 30% | Newcastle 42%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Newcastle 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 30% | Newcastle 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 28% | Draw 30% | Newcastle 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Burnley 0.89 / Newcastle 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.633 / def 1.100 | Newcastle attack 0.836 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Newcastle xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Newcastle kick off?
Burnley vs Newcastle kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 December 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Newcastle?
Burnley 1 - 3 Newcastle.
Where is Burnley vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Newcastle part of?
Burnley vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 28% chance of winning, Newcastle a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Burnley and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Newcastle?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Newcastle 5W.
What form are Burnley and Newcastle in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Newcastle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.63) and Newcastle's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.84x) against Burnley's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
28%
3.56
30%
3.32
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.04
1.15
Newcastle xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Burnley and 1.15 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley come into this having played 56 games, going 26W 17D 13L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.59 PPG from 56 outings (26W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Burnley against 1.59 for Newcastle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burnley's home form reads 13W 10D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 26W 17D 13L in their last 56 games (1.70 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 26W 11D 19L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Newcastle away?
Burnley's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.75 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Burnley or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Newcastle in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Newcastle have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
0
Draws
6
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Newcastle?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Newcastle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Burnley 1-3 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Newcastle see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 29%, Newcastle 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Burnley) and 54% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 39% of games; Newcastle in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Burnley's recent matches and 54% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Burnley's recent games and 54% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Newcastle tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Burnley 1-3 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.89 xG and Newcastle 1.15 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.63 / defence 1.10 against Newcastle attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 28% | Draw 30% | Newcastle 42%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Newcastle 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Newcastle's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.70 PPG, Newcastle 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.