Burnley 0-1 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Liverpool make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 7D 3L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 1W 6D 2L this season (9 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Liverpool (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Liverpool are 1.60 PPG clear of Burnley in recent Premier League fixtures (2.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burnley lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Liverpool winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 55% versus Liverpool 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 40% | Liverpool 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.93 xG and Liverpool 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.755 / defence 0.985 | Liverpool attack 1.325 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.291. Burnley's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Liverpool have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Burnley games / 23 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 20% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 54%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Liverpool 1.85. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 56% | Liverpool 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 20% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Burnley 0.93 / Liverpool 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.755 / def 0.985 | Liverpool attack 1.325 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Liverpool xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Liverpool kick off?
Burnley vs Liverpool kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Liverpool?
Burnley 0 - 1 Liverpool.
Where is Burnley vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Liverpool part of?
Burnley vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 20% chance of winning, Liverpool a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Burnley and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Liverpool?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Liverpool 1W.
What form are Burnley and Liverpool in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Liverpool (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.76) and Liverpool's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.32x) against Burnley's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 20/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
20%
5.09
26%
3.83
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.61
1.69
Liverpool xG
5.09
20%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
4%
27.48
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Burnley and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Burnley and 1.69 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 20 games, going 1W 11D 8L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 2.20 PPG from 20 outings (13W 5D 2L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 1W 6D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 1.89 points per game from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.70 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 1W 11D 8L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 13W 5D 2L in their last 20 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.00 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Burnley or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Liverpool in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
5
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Liverpool?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Liverpool have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Liverpool 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 56%, Liverpool 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Burnley) and 78% (Liverpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 78% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Liverpool in 33%; Burnley have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Burnley's games and 56% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Burnley's matches and 78% of Liverpool's.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Burnley 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Burnley 0-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.93 xG and Liverpool 1.69 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burnley fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.76 / defence 0.98 against Liverpool attack 1.32 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 20% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 54%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 40%, Liverpool 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Liverpool's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.