Burnley 0-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Burnley welcome Everton to Turf Moor in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 16 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Burnley have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Burnley have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Everton's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Burnley, 1 for Everton and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2022, ended Burnley 3–2 Everton — a Burnley win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Everton trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 59% | Everton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.30 xG and Everton 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.859 / defence 1.427 | Everton attack 1.025 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.348. Burnley's defence rating of 1.427 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Everton's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 16 games and Everton's last 54.
Result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 22% | Everton 53%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.98 | Draw 4.58 | Everton 1.88. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.30 / 1.97) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | Everton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 22% | Everton 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Burnley 1.30 / Everton 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.859 / def 1.427 | Everton attack 1.025 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Everton (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Everton xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Everton FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Everton kick off?
Burnley vs Everton kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Everton?
Burnley 0 - 2 Everton.
Where is Burnley vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Everton part of?
Burnley vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 25% chance of winning, Everton a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Burnley and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.86x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 16 games and Everton's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
25%
3.98
22%
4.58
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.27
1.97
Everton xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
3%
28.64
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Burnley and 1.97 for Everton, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley come into this having played 54 games, going 28W 12D 14L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.09 PPG from 54 outings (15W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Burnley carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burnley's home form reads 15W 3D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Everton
Blended
Burnley (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Burnley vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Everton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 28W 12D 14L in their last 54 games (1.78 PPG), while Everton have gone 15W 14D 25L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Everton away?
Burnley's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.85 PPG; Everton away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Burnley or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Everton in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 3 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burnley's record when hosting Everton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Everton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 1, Everton have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burnley and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2026: Everton 2-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 42%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Burnley) and 46% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Everton in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Burnley's matches and 46% of Everton's.
Do Burnley and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Burnley's recent matches and 69% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.30 xG and Everton 1.97 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.86 / defence 1.43 against Everton attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 25% | Draw 22% | Everton 53%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 59%, Everton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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