Brentford 0-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brentford face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Brentford welcome Fulham to Gtech Community Stadium in Premier League (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Brentford have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Brentford have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fulham stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brentford 1.00 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Brentford's games and 60% of Fulham's (from Brentford's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Brentford, 1 for Fulham and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Brentford 3–0 Fulham — a Brentford win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brentford in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 59% versus Fulham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 55% | Fulham 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.65 xG and Fulham 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 0.837 / defence 1.030 | Fulham attack 0.919 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.487. Data: built from Brentford's last 73 games and Fulham's last 73.
Result probabilities: Brentford 42% | Draw 26% | Fulham 32%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 2.36 | Draw 3.89 | Fulham 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.65 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brentford at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Brentford's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brentford 80% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 36 | Venue: Gtech Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 42% | Draw 26% | Fulham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Brentford 1.65 / Fulham 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 0.837 / def 1.030 | Fulham attack 0.919 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Brentford (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Fulham xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brentford vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Brentford vs Fulham kick off?
Brentford vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Gtech Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Fulham?
Brentford 0 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Brentford vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Gtech Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Fulham part of?
Brentford vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 42% chance of winning, Fulham a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Brentford and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brentford vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brentford's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brentford's last 73 games and Fulham's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.89
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Brentford xG
Total xG
3.06
1.41
Fulham xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brentford vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Brentford and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Brentford and 1.41 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brentford come into this having played 73 games, going 24W 22D 27L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.30 PPG from 73 outings (27W 14D 32L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brentford on 1.29 PPG, Fulham on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brentford's home form reads 15W 13D 8L across their last 36 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 36 away games (10W 7D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brentford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brentford are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.45 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
Brentford (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brentford
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Brentford vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Brentford and Fulham in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 24W 22D 27L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Fulham have gone 27W 14D 32L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Fulham away?
Brentford's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.61 PPG; Fulham away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2023, when Brentford won Fulham 0-3 Brentford.
Brentford's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Brentford
2
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Brentford vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Fulham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Brentford have won 2, Fulham have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Brentford 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Brentford and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brentford 67%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Brentford) and 61% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brentford vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brentford and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brentford's games and 56% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brentford and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Brentford's matches and 61% of Fulham's.
Do Brentford and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Brentford's recent matches and 67% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brentford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Brentford and Fulham drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.65 xG and Fulham 1.41 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 42% | Draw 26% | Fulham 32%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 55%, Fulham 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brentford 1.29 PPG, Fulham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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