Bournemouth 1-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees West Ham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 December 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Ham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bournemouth have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bournemouth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, West Ham in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bournemouth, 2 for West Ham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
West Ham trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 62% and West Ham 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bournemouth 66% | West Ham 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.77 xG and West Ham 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.980 / defence 0.749 | West Ham attack 0.889 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.446. Bournemouth's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Bournemouth games / 53 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 55% | Draw 26% | West Ham 19%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | West Ham 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
West Ham lead the H2H ledger, but Bournemouth carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 60% | West Ham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 16 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 55% | Draw 26% | West Ham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Bournemouth 1.77 / West Ham 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.980 / def 0.749 | West Ham attack 0.889 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.96
West Ham xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs West Ham kick off?
Bournemouth vs West Ham kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 16 December 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Bournemouth vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs West Ham part of?
Bournemouth vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 55% chance of winning, West Ham a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bournemouth and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and West Ham?
Record (4 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 2 | West Ham 2W.
What form are Bournemouth and West Ham in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. West Ham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.83
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.73
0.96
West Ham xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
3%
30.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.96 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 20W 12D 21L from 53 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Ham, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 21L across 53 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.36 PPG, West Ham on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Ham's away record stands at 9W 4D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.51 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; West Ham in 68%.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and West Ham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while West Ham have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or West Ham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.54 PPG; West Ham away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and West Ham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 6 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when West Ham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Bournemouth
6
Draws
2
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and West Ham?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 0, West Ham have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 54%, West Ham 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Bournemouth and 73% for West Ham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bournemouth's games and 69% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Bournemouth's matches and 73% of West Ham's.
Bournemouth and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Bournemouth and West Ham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.77 xG and West Ham 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.98 / defence 0.75 against West Ham attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 55% | Draw 26% | West Ham 19%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 66%, West Ham 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
West Ham's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.36 PPG, West Ham 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.