Bournemouth 3-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Fulham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 December 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Vitality Stadium this season.
Fulham — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bournemouth are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Fulham and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fulham in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 44% versus Fulham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 54% | Fulham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.60 xG and Fulham 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.835 / defence 1.083 | Fulham attack 0.938 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.324. Data: 55 Bournemouth games / 56 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 44% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Fulham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 50% | Fulham 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 44% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Bournemouth 1.60 / Fulham 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.835 / def 1.083 | Fulham attack 0.938 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Fulham xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Fulham kick off?
Bournemouth vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Bournemouth 3 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Bournemouth vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Fulham part of?
Bournemouth vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 44% chance of winning, Fulham a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bournemouth and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Record (4 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 3 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (0.83) and Fulham's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
44%
2.30
24%
4.11
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.95
1.35
Fulham xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.35 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 10D 28L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.31 PPG from 55 outings (21W 9D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.11 PPG, Fulham on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bournemouth's home form reads 8W 7D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (8W 4D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.44 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 17W 10D 28L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Fulham have gone 21W 9D 25L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Fulham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.15 PPG; Fulham away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Fulham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 44%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bournemouth) and 59% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 41% of games; Fulham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 56% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bournemouth's recent games and 59% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Fulham 3-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.60 xG and Fulham 1.35 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fulham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 44% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 54%, Fulham 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.11 PPG, Fulham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.