Bournemouth 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Bournemouth welcome Burnley to Vitality Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bournemouth at 1.00 PPG versus Burnley's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bournemouth have won 2, Burnley 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Burnley trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 59% versus Burnley 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 57% | Burnley 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.99 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.854 / defence 0.772 | Burnley attack 0.943 / defence 1.479. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.304. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.479 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bournemouth's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Bournemouth games / 16 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 61% | Draw 21% | Burnley 17%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Burnley 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 30% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 61% | Draw 21% | Burnley 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Bournemouth 1.99 / Burnley 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.854 / def 0.772 | Burnley attack 0.943 / def 1.479 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Burnley xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Burnley kick off?
Bournemouth vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Bournemouth vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Burnley part of?
Bournemouth vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 61% chance of winning, Burnley a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bournemouth and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Bournemouth 2W | Draws 0 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Burnley in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Burnley (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 0.85x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.73
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.94
0.95
Burnley xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
2%
42.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.95 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 20W 17D 17L from 54 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 13L across 54 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.43 PPG, Burnley on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 12W 7D 8L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 13W 6D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.35 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Burnley in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 20W 17D 17L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while Burnley have gone 26W 15D 13L in their last 54 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.59 PPG; Burnley away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Burnley in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
2
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 2, Burnley have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Burnley?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 41%, Burnley 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bournemouth) and 52% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Burnley in 48%; Bournemouth have failed to score in 30% of games; Burnley in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 44% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bournemouth's recent games and 52% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Burnley tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Burnley in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and Burnley finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.99 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 0.77 against Burnley attack 0.94 / defence 1.48, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 61% | Draw 21% | Burnley 17%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 57%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.43 PPG, Burnley 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.