Wrexham 4-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Accrington ST travel to STōK Cae Ras to take on Wrexham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wrexham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wrexham's home record at STōK Cae Ras: 9W 0D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Wrexham are significantly better at STōK Cae Ras than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League Two this season, Accrington ST have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wrexham 1.40 PPG, Accrington ST 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wrexham, 1 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Accrington ST winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wrexham in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 53% versus Accrington ST 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 47% | Accrington ST 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 2.05 xG and Accrington ST 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.248 / defence 0.857 | Accrington ST attack 0.872 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.312. Data: 34 Wrexham games / 34 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 62% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 17%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Accrington ST 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Wrexham (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 40% | Accrington ST 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 62% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Wrexham 2.05 / Accrington ST 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.248 / def 0.857 | Accrington ST attack 0.872 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Accrington ST xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Wrexham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Accrington ST?
Wrexham 4 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Wrexham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Accrington ST part of?
Wrexham vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 62% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wrexham and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Wrexham 0W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Wrexham and Accrington ST in?
Wrexham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wrexham's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
62%
1.63
22%
4.59
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Wrexham xG
Total xG
3.03
0.98
Accrington ST xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
2%
46.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Wrexham and 0.98 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 17W 9D 8L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 13W 7D 14L from 34 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Wrexham are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 2.38 PPG from 16 outings (12W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 4W 4D 8L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wrexham are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.38 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 34 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 17W 9D 8L in their last 34 games (1.76 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 13W 7D 14L in their last 34 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Accrington ST away?
Wrexham's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.38 PPG; Accrington ST away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wrexham
0
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Accrington ST?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 1, Accrington ST have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Wrexham 4-0 Accrington ST.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 56%, Accrington ST 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Wrexham) and 50% (Accrington ST). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Wrexham's games and 69% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wrexham vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Wrexham's matches and 50% of Accrington ST's.
Do Wrexham and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wrexham run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Accrington ST 4-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 2.05 xG and Accrington ST 0.98 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Accrington ST landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.25 / defence 0.86 against Accrington ST attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 62% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 17%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 47%, Accrington ST 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.