Walsall 0-2 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Harrogate Town at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Walsall vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Walsall and Harrogate Town meet at Bescot Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 45. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Walsall's overall League Two record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Bescot Stadium, Walsall have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bescot Stadium this season.
Harrogate Town have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Harrogate Town have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Walsall against 1.00 for Harrogate Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Walsall lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Walsall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 53% versus Harrogate Town 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 49% | Harrogate Town 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.00 xG and Harrogate Town 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.761 / defence 1.225 | Harrogate Town attack 0.931 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.200. Walsall's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 90 Walsall games / 90 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 27% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 45%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Harrogate Town 2.22. Harrogate Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Harrogate Town at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 40% | Harrogate Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 27% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Walsall 1.00 / Harrogate Town 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.761 / def 1.225 | Harrogate Town attack 0.931 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Harrogate Town xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Walsall vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Walsall 0 - 2 Harrogate Town.
Where is Walsall vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Harrogate Town part of?
Walsall vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 27% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Walsall and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Harrogate Town?
Record (9 meetings): Walsall 4W | Draws 2 | Harrogate Town 3W.
What form are Walsall and Harrogate Town in?
Walsall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 0.76x the league average against Harrogate Town's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.93x) against Walsall's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
27%
3.64
27%
3.67
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.37
1.37
Harrogate Town xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Walsall and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Walsall and 1.37 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Walsall's recent record stands at 39W 25D 26L from 90 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 47L across 90 games — 0.99 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Walsall by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Harrogate Town heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Walsall have managed 20W 11D 14L from 45 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 9W 13D 23L across 45 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 0.88 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 90 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 39W 25D 26L in their last 90 games (1.58 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 23W 20D 47L in their last 90 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Harrogate Town away?
Walsall's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.58 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Harrogate Town won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Walsall
2
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Harrogate Town?
From 10 meetings on record, Walsall have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Walsall 0-2 Harrogate Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 62%, Harrogate Town 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Walsall) and 36% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Walsall's recent matches and 47% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Walsall vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Walsall's recent games and 36% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Walsall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Harrogate Town beat Walsall 0-2 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.00 xG and Harrogate Town 1.37 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.76 / defence 1.23 against Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 27% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 45%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 49%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.99. Form was overturned, with Harrogate Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.