Walsall 2-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Walsall at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Walsall vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Poundland Bescot Stadium to face Walsall in League Two, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Walsall (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall at Poundland Bescot Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Walsall, 1.40 for Crawley Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Walsall 0W, Crawley Town 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 51% versus Crawley Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 41% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.85 xG and Crawley Town 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 1.154 / defence 0.886 | Crawley Town attack 0.910 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.040. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Walsall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Walsall games / 63 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 61% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Crawley Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Walsall (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Walsall as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Walsall 50% | Crawley Town 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 61% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Walsall 1.85 / Crawley Town 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 1.154 / def 0.886 | Crawley Town attack 0.910 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Walsall (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Crawley Town xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Crawley Town kick off?
Walsall vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Walsall 2 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Walsall vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Crawley Town part of?
Walsall vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 61% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Walsall and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Walsall 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Walsall and Crawley Town in?
Walsall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 1.15x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.91x) against Walsall's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.41
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.69
0.84
Crawley Town xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
3%
39.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Walsall and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Walsall and 0.84 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Walsall have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 18D 25L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 21W 15D 27L from 63 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Walsall against 1.24 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Walsall have posted 1.62 PPG from 32 outings (15W 7D 10L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 8W 9D 15L from 32 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.19 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 62%.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 20W 18D 25L in their last 63 games (1.24 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 21W 15D 27L in their last 63 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Crawley Town away?
Walsall's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.62 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Walsall
6
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Walsall have won 1, Crawley Town have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Walsall 0-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 53%, Crawley Town 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Walsall) and 53% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Walsall keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Walsall's games and 62% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Walsall vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Walsall's recent games and 53% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Walsall edge out Crawley Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Crawley Town 2-1 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.85 xG and Crawley Town 0.84 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Crawley Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.35, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 61% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 16%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 41%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.24 PPG, Crawley Town 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.