Walsall 0-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Walsall take on Carlisle.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 41 as Walsall welcome Carlisle to Poundland Bescot Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Walsall have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Walsall's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Poundland Bescot Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Carlisle away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Carlisle's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Walsall's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Walsall, 1 for Carlisle and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Walsall in-play and half-time data (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 50% versus Carlisle 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 37% | Carlisle 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 0.86 xG and Carlisle 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.844 / defence 0.788 | Carlisle attack 1.106 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.063. Walsall's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 86 Walsall games / 86 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 30% | Draw 36% | Carlisle 34%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Carlisle 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 40% | Carlisle 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 30% | Draw 36% | Carlisle 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Walsall 0.86 / Carlisle 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.844 / def 0.788 | Carlisle attack 1.106 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Carlisle xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Carlisle kick off?
Walsall vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Carlisle?
Walsall 0 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Walsall vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Carlisle part of?
Walsall vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 30% chance of winning, Carlisle a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Walsall and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Carlisle?
Record (3 meetings): Walsall 1W | Draws 1 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are Walsall and Carlisle in?
Walsall (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Carlisle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Walsall's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Carlisle's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
36%
2.76
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Walsall xG
Total xG
1.79
0.93
Carlisle xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.5 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Walsall and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Walsall and 0.93 for Carlisle, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Walsall come into this having played 86 games, going 25W 29D 32L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Carlisle sit at 1.42 PPG from 86 outings (33W 23D 30L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.21 PPG, Carlisle on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Walsall's home form reads 18W 13D 12L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Carlisle have taken 1.21 points per game from 43 outings (14W 10D 19L).
The Goals Picture
Walsall are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 86 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 25W 29D 32L in their last 86 games (1.21 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 33W 23D 30L in their last 86 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Carlisle away?
Walsall's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.56 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Walsall or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Walsall have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Carlisle in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Walsall and Carlisle runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Walsall's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Walsall
3
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Walsall have won 2, Carlisle have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Carlisle 1-1 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Carlisle?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 51%, Carlisle 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Walsall) and 58% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Walsall keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Walsall have failed to score in 26% of games; Carlisle in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Walsall's recent matches and 49% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Walsall vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Walsall's recent games and 58% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Carlisle tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Walsall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 41, as Walsall and Carlisle drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 0.86 xG and Carlisle 0.93 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Walsall fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Carlisle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.84 / defence 0.79 against Carlisle attack 1.11 / defence 0.87, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 30% | Draw 36% | Carlisle 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 37%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carlisle's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.21 PPG, Carlisle 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.