Swindon Town 2-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swindon Town vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The County Ground plays host to Swindon Town versus Port Vale in League Two, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swindon Town have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Swindon Town at The County Ground this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Port Vale (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Port Vale's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Swindon Town, 1 for Port Vale and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Swindon Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Swindon Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 65% versus Port Vale 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 65% | Port Vale 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.17 xG and Port Vale 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.164 / defence 1.125 | Port Vale attack 0.877 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.152. Data: 46 Swindon Town games / 46 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 37% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 35%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Port Vale 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swindon Town as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swindon Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Swindon Town 60% | Port Vale 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 37% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Swindon Town 1.17 / Port Vale 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.164 / def 1.125 | Port Vale attack 0.877 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Port Vale xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Port Vale kick off?
Swindon Town vs Port Vale kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Swindon Town 2 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Swindon Town vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Port Vale part of?
Swindon Town vs Port Vale is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 37% chance of winning, Port Vale a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Swindon Town and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Port Vale?
Record (2 meetings): Swindon Town 1W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Swindon Town and Port Vale in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Port Vale (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swindon Town's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.88x) against Swindon Town's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
37%
2.74
28%
3.53
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.30
1.14
Port Vale xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.14 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swindon Town's recent record stands at 22W 11D 13L from 46 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 12L across 46 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Swindon Town against 1.70 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swindon Town have managed 9W 7D 7L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 11W 6D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Swindon Town are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 22W 11D 13L in their last 46 games (1.67 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 22W 12D 12L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.48 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Swindon Town or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Port Vale in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Swindon Town
1
Draws
3
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 2, Port Vale have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Swindon Town 3-3 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swindon Town see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 65%, Port Vale 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Swindon Town) and 39% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Swindon Town's games and 61% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swindon Town vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Swindon Town's recent games and 39% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Port Vale tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Port Vale 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Port Vale 2-1 at The County Ground, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.17 xG and Port Vale 1.14 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.16 / defence 1.12 against Port Vale attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 37% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 35%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 65%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.67 PPG, Port Vale 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.