Swindon Town 1-2 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swindon Town vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
County Ground plays host to Swindon Town versus Crewe in League Two, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swindon Town have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Swindon Town's home record at County Ground: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at County Ground.
Crewe (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Crewe's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Swindon Town, 1.80 for Crewe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Swindon Town, 3 for Crewe and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–0 with Swindon Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Swindon Town half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 57% versus Crewe 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 58% | Crewe 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.52 xG and Crewe 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.273 / defence 0.876 | Crewe attack 0.910 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.167. Swindon Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 79 Swindon Town games / 79 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 51% | Draw 26% | Crewe 23%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Crewe 4.35. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swindon Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 40% | Crewe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 51% | Draw 26% | Crewe 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Swindon Town 1.52 / Crewe 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.273 / def 0.876 | Crewe attack 0.910 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Crewe xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Crewe kick off?
Swindon Town vs Crewe kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Swindon Town 1 - 2 Crewe.
Where is Swindon Town vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Crewe part of?
Swindon Town vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 51% chance of winning, Crewe a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Swindon Town and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crewe?
Record (7 meetings): Swindon Town 1W | Draws 3 | Crewe 3W.
What form are Swindon Town and Crewe in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Crewe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Swindon Town's attack at 1.27x the league average against Crewe's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.91x) against Swindon Town's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.87
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.45
0.93
Crewe xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.93 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 79 outings, Swindon Town have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 34W 21D 24L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Crewe's form line: 29W 25D 25L from 79 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Swindon Town against 1.42 for Crewe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swindon Town have posted 1.74 PPG from 39 outings (19W 11D 9L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 11W 15D 13L from 39 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swindon Town are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.23 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Crewe in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 34W 21D 24L in their last 79 games (1.56 PPG), while Crewe have gone 29W 25D 25L in their last 79 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Crewe away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.74 PPG; Crewe away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swindon Town won 0-3 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crewe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Swindon Town
3
Draws
4
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crewe?
From 8 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 1, Crewe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Swindon Town 1-2 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Crewe see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 54%, Crewe 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Swindon Town) and 31% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Swindon Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Crewe in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 51% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Swindon Town's recent games and 31% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Crewe tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Crewe in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Swindon Town 1-2 at County Ground, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.52 xG and Crewe 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.27 / defence 0.88 against Crewe attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 51% | Draw 26% | Crewe 23%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Crewe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Crewe 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.56 PPG, Crewe 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.