Stevenage 1-2 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Northampton travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stevenage at The Lamex Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Northampton — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Northampton's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Northampton's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Stevenage's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stevenage, 1 for Northampton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Northampton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Northampton in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 39% versus Northampton 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 44% | Northampton 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.97 xG and Northampton 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.890 / defence 1.440 | Northampton attack 0.710 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.097. Data: 36 Stevenage games / 36 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 29% | Draw 34% | Northampton 37%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Northampton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Northampton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Northampton | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 29% | Draw 34% | Northampton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Stevenage 0.97 / Northampton 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.890 / def 1.440 | Northampton attack 0.710 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Northampton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Northampton xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Northampton kick off?
Stevenage vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Northampton?
Stevenage 1 - 2 Northampton.
Where is Stevenage vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Northampton part of?
Stevenage vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 29% chance of winning, Northampton a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stevenage and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Northampton?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Northampton 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Northampton in?
Stevenage (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Northampton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.89x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
29%
3.46
34%
2.91
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.09
1.12
Northampton xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.9 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.12 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 7W 13D 16L from 36 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Northampton, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 10L across 36 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Northampton by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 6W 6D 6L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Northampton's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.19 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Northampton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Northampton have gone 17W 9D 10L in their last 36 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Northampton away?
Stevenage's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.33 PPG; Northampton away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Northampton in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Northampton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stevenage
2
Draws
4
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Northampton?
From 10 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Northampton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Northampton see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Northampton 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stevenage) and 39% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Northampton in 44%; Stevenage have failed to score in 33% of games; Northampton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 44% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stevenage's recent games and 39% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Northampton tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Northampton in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Stevenage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Stevenage 1-2 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.97 xG and Northampton 1.12 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Northampton outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.89 / defence 1.44 against Northampton attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 29% | Draw 34% | Northampton 37%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Northampton 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Northampton's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.