Shrewsbury 1-2 Walsall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Walsall at 37%, yet in-form Shrewsbury provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shrewsbury vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Walsall make the trip to The Croud Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League Two, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Shrewsbury (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shrewsbury at The Croud Meadow this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Walsall have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Walsall's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Shrewsbury. A 1.20 PPG lead over Walsall (1.90 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shrewsbury lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 50% versus Walsall 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 46% | Walsall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.12 xG and Walsall 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.884 / defence 0.924 | Walsall attack 1.080 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.185. Data: 34 Shrewsbury games / 78 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 34% | Draw 28% | Walsall 37%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Walsall 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shrewsbury (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 40% | Walsall 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 34% | Draw 28% | Walsall 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Shrewsbury 1.12 / Walsall 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.884 / def 0.924 | Walsall attack 1.080 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Walsall (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Walsall xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Walsall kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Walsall kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Walsall?
Shrewsbury 1 - 2 Walsall.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Walsall part of?
Shrewsbury vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 34% chance of winning, Walsall a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shrewsbury and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Walsall?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 1 | Walsall 0W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Walsall in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Walsall (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.88) and Walsall's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (1.08x) against Shrewsbury's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 34/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.53
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.30
1.18
Walsall xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.18 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 18W 17D 45L from 80 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Walsall, meanwhile, have gone 36W 22D 22L across 80 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Walsall by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 12W 8D 20L from 40 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Walsall's away record stands at 16W 13D 11L across 40 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.48 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 80 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Walsall in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 18W 17D 45L in their last 80 games (0.89 PPG), while Walsall have gone 36W 22D 22L in their last 80 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Walsall away?
Walsall's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.10 PPG; Walsall away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Walsall in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Walsall?
From 2 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Walsall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Shrewsbury 1-2 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 42%, Walsall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shrewsbury) and 35% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Walsall in 35%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 40% of games; Walsall in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 40% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 35% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Walsall tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Walsall in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Walsall edge out Shrewsbury 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Shrewsbury 1-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.12 xG and Walsall 1.18 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Walsall attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 34% | Draw 28% | Walsall 37%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 46%, Walsall 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Walsall's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.