Salford City 1-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Salford City (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Salford City face Newport County.

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Analysis & Preview

Newport County travel to The Peninsula Stadium to take on Salford City in League Two (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Salford City stand at 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Salford City have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Newport County have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Newport County have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Salford City are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

Salford City hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for Newport County and 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2024, ended Salford City 1–3 Newport County — a Newport County win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Salford City and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Salford City in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Newport County in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 58% versus Newport County 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 55% | Newport County 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.72 xG and Newport County 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.993 / defence 0.845 | Newport County attack 0.924 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.151. Newport County's defence rating of 1.328 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Salford City's projected output up. Data: built from Salford City's last 72 games and Newport County's last 71.

Result probabilities: Salford City 56% | Draw 26% | Newport County 19%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.79 | Draw 3.92 | Newport County 5.39. The model has a clear lean to Salford City (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salford City 20% (last 10 home games) | Newport County 50% (last 10 away games).

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