Oldham 1-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Salford City travel to Boundary Park to take on Oldham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Oldham at Boundary Park this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Salford City have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Salford City — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oldham have won 0, Salford City 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Salford City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Oldham trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Salford City trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 46% versus Salford City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 54% | Salford City 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 0.78 xG and Salford City 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.921 / defence 1.540 | Salford City attack 0.881 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 1.085. Data: 43 Oldham games / 43 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 20% | Draw 27% | Salford City 54%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Salford City 1.85. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 50% | Salford City 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 20% | Draw 27% | Salford City 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Oldham 0.78 / Salford City 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.921 / def 1.540 | Salford City attack 0.881 / def 0.851 | league avg home 0.996 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Salford City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Salford City xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Salford City kick off?
Oldham vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Oldham 1 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Oldham vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Salford City part of?
Oldham vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 20% chance of winning, Salford City a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Oldham and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
Record (1 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 0 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Oldham and Salford City in?
Oldham (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Salford City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oldham's attack at 0.92x the league average against Salford City's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
20%
5.05
27%
3.75
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.25
1.47
Salford City xG
5.05
20%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
5%
22.02
25%
4.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 15.5 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Oldham and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Oldham and 1.47 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oldham's recent record stands at 9W 10D 24L from 43 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 13L across 43 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oldham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 5W 3D 13L from 21 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 8W 4D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.26 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Salford City in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 9W 10D 24L in their last 43 games (0.86 PPG), while Salford City have gone 18W 12D 13L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.86 PPG; Salford City away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Oldham or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Salford City in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Salford City have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Oldham's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oldham
0
Draws
4
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 0, Salford City have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Oldham 1-2 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 52%, Salford City 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Oldham) and 33% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Salford City in 43%; Oldham have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Oldham's recent matches and 43% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Oldham's recent games and 33% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Salford City tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Salford City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Oldham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Oldham 1-2 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 0.78 xG and Salford City 1.47 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.92 / defence 1.54 against Salford City attack 0.88 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 20% | Draw 27% | Salford City 54%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 54%, Salford City 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.