Oldham 3-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oldham and Port Vale meet at Boundary Park in League Two, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Oldham (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boundary Park, Oldham have gone 1W 1D 6L this season (8 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Port Vale's overall League Two record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale away from home this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.75 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Port Vale arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Oldham — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Port Vale — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 44% versus Port Vale 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 62% | Port Vale 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.03 xG and Port Vale 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.833 / defence 1.449 | Port Vale attack 1.137 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.204. Data: 16 Oldham games / 16 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 17% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 58%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Port Vale 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Port Vale (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 50% | Port Vale 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 17% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Oldham 1.03 / Port Vale 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.833 / def 1.449 | Port Vale attack 1.137 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Port Vale xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Port Vale kick off?
Oldham vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Port Vale?
Oldham 3 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Oldham vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Port Vale part of?
Oldham vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 17% chance of winning, Port Vale a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Oldham and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Port Vale?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oldham and Port Vale in?
Oldham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Port Vale (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oldham's attack rating (0.83) and Port Vale's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (1.14x) against Oldham's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
17%
5.83
25%
3.95
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Oldham xG
Total xG
3.01
1.98
Port Vale xG
5.83
17%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
14%
7.26
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
2%
42.36
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Oldham and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Oldham and 1.98 for Port Vale, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oldham's recent record stands at 3W 3D 10L from 16 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 3L across 16 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oldham heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 1W 1D 6L from 8 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 4W 2D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oldham are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Port Vale in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.50 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Oldham or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Port Vale in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oldham
0
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Port Vale?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Port Vale have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Port Vale 3-2 Oldham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 50%, Port Vale 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Oldham) and 38% (Port Vale). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oldham have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Oldham's games and 62% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oldham vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Oldham's matches and 38% of Port Vale's.
Do Oldham and Port Vale tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oldham defy the odds to beat Port Vale 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Port Vale 3-2 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.03 xG and Port Vale 1.98 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Oldham beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.83 / defence 1.45 against Port Vale attack 1.14 / defence 1.18, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 17% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 58%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Oldham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 62%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Oldham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.