Oldham 1-1 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oldham at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Chesterfield fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chesterfield make the trip to Boundary Park to face Oldham in League Two, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Thursday 1 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Oldham (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oldham have posted 3W 4D 3L at Boundary Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chesterfield have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chesterfield, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Chesterfield have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Oldham against 1.60 for Chesterfield. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Oldham — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Chesterfield — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 39% versus Chesterfield 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 35% | Chesterfield 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.29 xG and Chesterfield 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.890 / defence 0.831 | Chesterfield attack 1.076 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.224. Data: 23 Oldham games / 69 Chesterfield games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 40% | Draw 29% | Chesterfield 31%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Chesterfield 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oldham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Oldham 40% | Chesterfield 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 40% | Draw 29% | Chesterfield 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Oldham 1.29 / Chesterfield 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.890 / def 0.831 | Chesterfield attack 1.076 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Oldham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Chesterfield xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Chesterfield kick off?
Oldham vs Chesterfield kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 1 January 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Chesterfield?
Oldham 1 - 1 Chesterfield.
Where is Oldham vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Chesterfield part of?
Oldham vs Chesterfield is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 40% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Oldham and Chesterfield will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Chesterfield?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oldham and Chesterfield in?
Oldham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Chesterfield (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Oldham's attack at 0.89x the league average against Chesterfield's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chesterfield's attack (1.08x) against Oldham's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 23/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
40%
2.47
29%
3.49
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.39
1.09
Chesterfield xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oldham and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Oldham and 1.09 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oldham's recent record stands at 7W 10D 6L from 23 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chesterfield, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 5L across 23 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Chesterfield is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Oldham against 1.65 for Chesterfield. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 3W 5D 3L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chesterfield's away record stands at 4W 4D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oldham are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.70 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chesterfield in 65%.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Chesterfield
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 7W 10D 6L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 10W 8D 5L in their last 23 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Chesterfield away?
Chesterfield's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.27 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Oldham or Chesterfield been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Chesterfield in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oldham
1
Draws
0
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Chesterfield?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Chesterfield have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Chesterfield last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Chesterfield 0-3 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Chesterfield?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oldham see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 46%, Chesterfield 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Oldham) and 46% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Oldham have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Chesterfield?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Oldham's recent matches and 64% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Chesterfield usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Oldham's recent games and 46% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Chesterfield tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Chesterfield in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oldham and Chesterfield share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 24, as Oldham and Chesterfield drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.29 xG and Chesterfield 1.09 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Chesterfield attack 1.08 / defence 1.12, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 40% | Draw 29% | Chesterfield 31%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 35%, Chesterfield 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Chesterfield's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.35 PPG, Chesterfield 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.