Oldham 0-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 10 as Oldham welcome Accrington ST to Boundary Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham at Boundary Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boundary Park. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Oldham are significantly better at Boundary Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Accrington ST have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oldham 1.00 PPG, Accrington ST 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Oldham, 1 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Oldham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Oldham trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Accrington ST trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 44% versus Accrington ST 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 48% | Accrington ST 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.68 xG and Accrington ST 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.046 / defence 1.216 | Accrington ST attack 0.993 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.003. Data: 54 Oldham games / 55 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 46% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 26%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Accrington ST 3.85. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oldham are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Oldham 40% | Accrington ST 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 46% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Oldham 1.68 / Accrington ST 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.046 / def 1.216 | Accrington ST attack 0.993 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Oldham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Accrington ST xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Oldham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Oldham 0 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Oldham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Accrington ST part of?
Oldham vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 46% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Oldham and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Accrington ST?
Record (2 meetings): Oldham 1W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Oldham and Accrington ST in?
Oldham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oldham's attack at 1.05x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.55
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.89
1.21
Accrington ST xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
5%
20.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Oldham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Oldham and 1.21 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Oldham have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 20W 15D 19L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST's form line: 16W 14D 24L from 54 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 1.39 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oldham have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 5W 7D 15L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oldham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.09 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Accrington ST away?
Oldham's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.63 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Oldham or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Oldham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oldham's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Oldham
1
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Accrington ST?
From 3 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Accrington ST have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Oldham 0-0 Accrington ST.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 44%, Accrington ST 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Oldham) and 41% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Accrington ST in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Oldham's recent matches and 44% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Oldham's recent games and 41% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oldham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham and Accrington ST finished level at 0-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.68 xG and Accrington ST 1.21 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oldham fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Accrington ST landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Accrington ST attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 46% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 26%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 48%, Accrington ST 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.39 PPG, Accrington ST 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.