Notts County 0-0 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Newport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Newport County travel to Meadow Lane to take on Notts County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Notts County have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 6W 1D 3L at Meadow Lane — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Meadow Lane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.
Newport County — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newport County's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Notts County) versus 1.10 (Newport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Notts County, 0 for Newport County and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Notts County trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Newport County trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 64% versus Newport County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 63% | Newport County 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.67 xG and Newport County 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.044 / defence 0.842 | Newport County attack 0.832 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.247. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Notts County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Notts County games / 62 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 56% | Draw 25% | Newport County 19%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Newport County 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 30% | Newport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 56% | Draw 25% | Newport County 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Notts County 1.67 / Newport County 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.044 / def 0.842 | Newport County attack 0.832 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Notts County (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Newport County xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Newport County kick off?
Notts County vs Newport County kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Newport County?
Notts County 0 - 0 Newport County.
Where is Notts County vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Newport County part of?
Notts County vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 56% chance of winning, Newport County a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Notts County and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Newport County?
Record (2 meetings): Notts County 2W | Draws 0 | Newport County 0W.
What form are Notts County and Newport County in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Newport County (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Notts County vs Newport County?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.04) and Newport County's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.08
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.54
0.87
Newport County xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
27.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Notts County and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Notts County and 0.87 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Newport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County come into this having played 62 games, going 25W 13D 24L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Newport County sit at 1.21 PPG from 62 outings (22W 9D 31L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.42 PPG, Newport County on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Notts County's home form reads 16W 3D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Newport County have taken 0.93 points per game from 30 outings (9W 1D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.31 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Newport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Newport County in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 25W 13D 24L in their last 62 games (1.42 PPG), while Newport County have gone 22W 9D 31L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Newport County away?
Notts County's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.70 PPG; Newport County away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2023, when Notts County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Notts County's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Notts County
2
Draws
0
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Newport County?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 4, Newport County have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Notts County 3-1 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Newport County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 60%, Newport County 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Notts County and 53% for Newport County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newport County in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Notts County's recent matches and 40% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Notts County's matches and 53% of Newport County's.
Do Notts County and Newport County tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Newport County in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Notts County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 17, as Notts County and Newport County drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.67 xG and Newport County 0.87 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Notts County fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Newport County landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Newport County attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 56% | Draw 25% | Newport County 19%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 63%, Newport County 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Newport County's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.42 PPG, Newport County 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.