Northampton 1-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 23 as Northampton welcome Walsall to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Northampton have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Walsall stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Walsall's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Northampton carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Northampton's 20% and Walsall's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Northampton, 0 for Walsall and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Northampton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Northampton in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Walsall in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 33% versus Walsall 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Northampton 33% | Walsall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.39 xG and Walsall 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.993 / defence 0.781 | Walsall attack 0.582 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.117. Walsall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Northampton's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Northampton games / 33 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 57% | Draw 31% | Walsall 12%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.75 | Draw 3.23 | Walsall 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Northampton (57%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Walsall's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 20% | Walsall 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 57% | Draw 31% | Walsall 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 32% | xG Northampton 1.39 / Walsall 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.993 / def 0.781 | Walsall attack 0.582 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Northampton (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Walsall xG
32%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Walsall kick off?
Northampton vs Walsall kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Walsall?
Northampton 1 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Northampton vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Walsall part of?
Northampton vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 57% chance of winning, Walsall a 12% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Northampton and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Walsall?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 0 | Walsall 0W.
What form are Northampton and Walsall in?
Northampton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Walsall (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.99) and Walsall's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 2-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
57%
1.75
31%
3.21
12%
8.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.89
0.51
Walsall xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
8.47
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
3%
33.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 20.9 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Northampton and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Northampton and 0.51 for Walsall, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Walsall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 33 games, going 16W 8D 9L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.15 PPG from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Walsall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 10W 2D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.06 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Walsall in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 games (1.70 PPG), while Walsall have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Walsall away?
Northampton's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 2.00 PPG; Walsall away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Northampton or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Walsall in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Walsall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Northampton's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
2
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Walsall?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Walsall have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Northampton 0-0 Walsall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Northampton 25% BTTS, Walsall 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Northampton and 31% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Walsall in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Northampton's recent matches and 31% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Northampton's recent games and 31% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Walsall tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Walsall in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Walsall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Northampton and Walsall drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.39 xG and Walsall 0.51 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.99 / defence 0.78 against Walsall attack 0.58 / defence 1.37, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 57% | Draw 31% | Walsall 12%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 33%, Walsall 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.