Northampton 2-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Northampton at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 11 as Northampton welcome Stockport County to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stockport County — All Games: 2W 2D 5L from 9 League Two fixtures this season — 0.89 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Northampton are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.11 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.89). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Northampton 67% and Stockport County 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 67% | Stockport County 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 2.22 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.267 / defence 0.944 | Stockport County attack 0.976 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.005. Northampton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stockport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Northampton games / 9 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 67% | Draw 19% | Stockport County 14%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Stockport County 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Northampton (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 40% | Stockport County 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 67% | Draw 19% | Stockport County 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Northampton 2.22 / Stockport County 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.267 / def 0.944 | Stockport County attack 0.976 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Northampton (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stockport County xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Stockport County kick off?
Northampton vs Stockport County kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Stockport County?
Northampton 2 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Northampton vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Stockport County part of?
Northampton vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 67% chance of winning, Stockport County a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Northampton and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Northampton and Stockport County in?
Northampton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Stockport County (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (1.27) and Stockport County's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.31
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Northampton xG
Total xG
3.15
0.93
Stockport County xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
64.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Northampton and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Northampton and 0.93 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Stockport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Northampton have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 6W 2D 1L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County's form line: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Northampton are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stockport County.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Northampton have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stockport County's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Northampton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Stockport County in 67%.
Last 9 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 games (2.22 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Stockport County away?
Northampton's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 2.25 PPG; Stockport County away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Northampton or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stockport County in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Stockport County runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Northampton's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Northampton
3
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Stockport County have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Stockport County 2-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Northampton at 50%, Stockport County at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Northampton and 100% for Stockport County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Northampton's games and 100% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Northampton vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Northampton's matches and 100% of Stockport County's.
Do Northampton and Stockport County tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Stockport County 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Stockport County 2-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 2.22 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.27 / defence 0.94 against Stockport County attack 0.98 / defence 1.43, drawn from 55/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 67% | Draw 19% | Stockport County 14%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 67%, Stockport County 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.