Northampton 2-1 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Northampton and Oldham meet at Sixfields Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Northampton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 games at Sixfields Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Oldham's overall League Two record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Oldham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 35% versus Oldham 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 35% | Oldham 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.26 xG and Oldham 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.093 / defence 0.918 | Oldham attack 0.630 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.214. Data: 17 Northampton games / 17 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 48% | Draw 34% | Oldham 18%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Oldham 5.56. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 25% | Oldham 38% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 48% | Draw 34% | Oldham 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Northampton 1.26 / Oldham 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.093 / def 0.918 | Oldham attack 0.630 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Northampton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Oldham xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Oldham kick off?
Northampton vs Oldham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Oldham?
Northampton 2 - 1 Oldham.
Where is Northampton vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Oldham part of?
Northampton vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 48% chance of winning, Oldham a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Northampton and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Oldham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Northampton and Oldham in?
Northampton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Oldham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Northampton's attack rating (1.09) and Oldham's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oldham's attack (0.63x) against Northampton's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
48%
2.10
34%
2.94
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.97
0.70
Oldham xG
2.10
48%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
5%
19.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Northampton and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Northampton and 0.70 for Oldham, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Northampton come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 4D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oldham sit at 0.88 PPG from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Oldham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Northampton's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Oldham have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Northampton are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 0.88 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Oldham in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Oldham have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Oldham away?
Northampton's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 2.00 PPG; Oldham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Northampton or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Oldham in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Northampton
0
Draws
0
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Northampton have won 2, Oldham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Oldham 0-2 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Oldham?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Oldham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Northampton) and 38% (Oldham) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Northampton) and 50% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Oldham in 38%; Oldham in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Northampton's recent matches and 38% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Northampton's recent games and 50% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Oldham tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oldham in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Oldham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Oldham 2-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.26 xG and Oldham 0.70 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against Oldham attack 0.63 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 48% | Draw 34% | Oldham 18%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 35%, Oldham 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Oldham's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.