Newport County 0-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Newport County at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newport County vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newport County host Walsall at Rodney Parade in League Two, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Newport County stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Newport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Rodney Parade, Newport County have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Walsall have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Walsall have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Walsall away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newport County 0.80 PPG, Walsall 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Newport County have won 1, Walsall 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Newport County in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Walsall in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 55% versus Walsall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 55% | Walsall 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.40 xG and Walsall 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.027 / defence 1.131 | Walsall attack 0.905 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.077. Data: 47 Newport County games / 47 Walsall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Newport County 44% | Draw 27% | Walsall 29%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Walsall 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 70% | Walsall 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 44% | Draw 27% | Walsall 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Newport County 1.40 / Walsall 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 1.027 / def 1.131 | Walsall attack 0.905 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Newport County (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Walsall xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Walsall kick off?
Newport County vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Walsall?
Newport County 0 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Newport County vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Walsall part of?
Newport County vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 44% chance of winning, Walsall a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Newport County and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Walsall?
Record (2 meetings): Newport County 1W | Draws 1 | Walsall 0W.
What form are Newport County and Walsall in?
Newport County (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Walsall (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Newport County's attack rating (1.03) and Walsall's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.71
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.51
1.10
Walsall xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Newport County and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Newport County and 1.10 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Newport County's recent record stands at 19W 13D 15L from 47 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Newport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Walsall, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 20L across 47 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Walsall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 1.49 PPG, Walsall on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Newport County have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Walsall's away record stands at 4W 7D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Newport County are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.09 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 47 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Early Season
Walsall
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Walsall in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 19W 13D 15L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Walsall have gone 15W 12D 20L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Walsall away?
Newport County's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.43 PPG; Walsall away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Walsall go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Newport County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newport County's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Newport County
4
Draws
4
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Walsall?
From 10 meetings on record, Newport County have won 2, Walsall have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Walsall 2-1 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 61%, Walsall 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Newport County) and 30% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Walsall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Newport County's recent matches and 44% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newport County vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Newport County's recent games and 30% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Walsall tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Walsall in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Walsall defy the odds to beat Newport County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Newport County 0-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.40 xG and Walsall 1.10 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Newport County fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.03 / defence 1.13 against Walsall attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 44% | Draw 27% | Walsall 29%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Walsall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 55%, Walsall 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Walsall's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 1.49 PPG, Walsall 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.