Newport County 1-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newport County host Stockport County at Rodney Parade in League Two, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Newport County — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newport County's home record at Rodney Parade: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League Two appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stockport County — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Newport County trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 41% versus Stockport County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Newport County 29% | Stockport County 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 0.98 xG and Stockport County 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 0.803 / defence 1.162 | Stockport County attack 0.939 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.041. Data: 63 Newport County games / 17 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 31% | Draw 30% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Stockport County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Newport County 40% | Stockport County 62%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 31% | Draw 30% | Stockport County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Newport County 0.98 / Stockport County 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 0.803 / def 1.162 | Stockport County attack 0.939 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Stockport County xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Stockport County kick off?
Newport County vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Stockport County?
Newport County 1 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Newport County vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Stockport County part of?
Newport County vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 31% chance of winning, Stockport County a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Newport County and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Newport County and Stockport County in?
Newport County (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Stockport County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Newport County's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
31%
3.22
30%
3.31
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.12
1.14
Stockport County xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
15%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Newport County and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Newport County and 1.14 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Newport County have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 4W 4D 9L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County's form line: 6W 4D 7L from 17 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 0.94 PPG, Stockport County on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Newport County have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stockport County's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Newport County are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.24 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Stockport County away?
Newport County's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 0.88 PPG; Stockport County away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Newport County or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newport County have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Stockport County in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Stockport County won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newport County's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Newport County
0
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Newport County have won 1, Stockport County have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Stockport County 1-0 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 38%, Stockport County 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Newport County) and 62% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stockport County in 38%; Newport County have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Newport County's recent matches and 62% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newport County vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Newport County's recent games and 62% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Stockport County tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Newport County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Newport County 1-2 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 0.98 xG and Stockport County 1.14 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against Stockport County attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 31% | Draw 30% | Stockport County 39%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 29%, Stockport County 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 0.94 PPG, Stockport County 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.