Newport County 0-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Cambridge United travel to Rodney Parade to take on Newport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Newport County stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Newport County's home record at Rodney Parade: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League Two this season, Cambridge United have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cambridge United's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Newport County's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Newport County, 1 for Cambridge United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Cambridge United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Newport County trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cambridge United trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 49% versus Cambridge United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 56% | Cambridge United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 0.90 xG and Cambridge United 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 0.864 / defence 1.208 | Cambridge United attack 1.048 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.174. Data: 78 Newport County games / 32 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 23% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 51%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Cambridge United 1.96. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambridge United are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambridge United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 40% | Cambridge United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Cambridge United | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 23% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Newport County 0.90 / Cambridge United 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 0.864 / def 1.208 | Cambridge United attack 1.048 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Cambridge United xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Cambridge United kick off?
Newport County vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Cambridge United?
Newport County 0 - 2 Cambridge United.
Where is Newport County vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Cambridge United part of?
Newport County vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 23% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Newport County and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Newport County 0W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Newport County and Cambridge United in?
Newport County (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Newport County's attack at 0.86x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
23%
4.36
26%
3.81
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.39
1.49
Cambridge United xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
5%
19.26
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.6 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Newport County and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Newport County and 1.49 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 78 outings, Newport County have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 19W 16D 43L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 26W 20D 32L from 78 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 0.94 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Newport County have posted 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 10W 10D 18L from 38 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Newport County are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.17 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 19W 16D 43L in their last 78 games (0.94 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 26W 20D 32L in their last 78 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Cambridge United away?
Newport County's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.18 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Newport County
0
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Cambridge United?
From 2 meetings on record, Newport County have won 0, Cambridge United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Newport County 0-2 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Cambridge United?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 53%, Cambridge United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Newport County) and 47% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Newport County have failed to score in 37% of games; Cambridge United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Newport County's recent matches and 50% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newport County vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Newport County's recent games and 47% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Newport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Newport County 0-2 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 0.90 xG and Cambridge United 1.49 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Newport County fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Cambridge United attack 1.05 / defence 0.84, drawn from 78/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 23% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 51%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 56%, Cambridge United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 0.94 PPG, Cambridge United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.