Mansfield Town 1-0 Forest Green – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mansfield Town face Forest Green.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Forest Green in League Two (matchday 14). Kick-off: Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Mansfield Town at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Forest Green's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Forest Green's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Mansfield Town, 1.30 for Forest Green — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Mansfield Town, 1 for Forest Green and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Mansfield Town 4–0 Forest Green — a Mansfield Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Forest Green goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 62% versus Forest Green 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 53% | Forest Green 47%). Note also that Forest Green surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Mansfield Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 2.03 xG and Forest Green 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.311 / defence 1.100 | Forest Green attack 0.910 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.297. Mansfield Town carry an above-average attack rating of 1.311 — their 2.03 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 87 games and Forest Green's last 42.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 54% | Draw 22% | Forest Green 24%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.85 | Draw 4.53 | Forest Green 4.18. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Forest Green's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 80% (last 10 home games) | Forest Green 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Forest Green | Competition: League Two, matchday 14 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 54% | Draw 22% | Forest Green 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Mansfield Town 2.03 / Forest Green 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.311 / def 1.100 | Forest Green attack 0.910 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Forest Green xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Forest Green FAQs
What time does Mansfield Town vs Forest Green kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Forest Green kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Forest Green?
Mansfield Town 1 - 0 Forest Green.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Forest Green being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Forest Green part of?
Mansfield Town vs Forest Green is a League Two fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Forest Green?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 54% chance of winning, Forest Green a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Forest Green?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mansfield Town and Forest Green will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mansfield Town vs Forest Green have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mansfield Town's attack rating (1.31) and Forest Green's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forest Green's attack (0.91x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Mansfield Town's last 87 games and Forest Green's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.53
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
3.33
1.30
Forest Green xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
3%
31.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mansfield Town vs Forest Green Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Forest Green?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Forest Green expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.30 for Forest Green, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Forest Green?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mansfield Town come into this having played 87 games, going 41W 25D 21L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Forest Green sit at 0.69 PPG from 87 outings (14W 18D 55L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.01 PPG clear of Forest Green — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mansfield Town's home form reads 18W 15D 9L across their last 42 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Forest Green have taken 0.64 points per game from their last 42 away games (5W 12D 25L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Forest Green are on 0.80 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Forest Green
Current Season
Mansfield Town (Home) vs Forest Green (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Forest Green
Current Season
❓ Mansfield Town vs Forest Green Form FAQs
What form are Mansfield Town and Forest Green in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 41W 25D 21L in their last 87 games (1.70 PPG), while Forest Green have gone 14W 18D 55L in their last 87 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Forest Green away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.64 PPG; Forest Green away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Forest Green been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Forest Green in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Mansfield Town and Forest Green, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 9 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mansfield Town have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won Forest Green 0-4 Mansfield Town on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Forest Green — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
1
Forest Green
Recent Meetings
❓ Mansfield Town vs Forest Green H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Forest Green?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mansfield Town have won 2, Forest Green have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Forest Green last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 April 2024: Mansfield Town 1-0 Forest Green.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Forest Green?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 64%, Forest Green 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mansfield Town) and 43% (Forest Green).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Forest Green in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Forest Green away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Forest Green Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mansfield Town and Forest Green matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Mansfield Town's games and 50% of Forest Green's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mansfield Town and Forest Green matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 43% of Forest Green's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Forest Green matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 74% of Forest Green's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Forest Green 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Forest Green 1-0 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 2.03 xG and Forest Green 1.30 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Forest Green landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.31 / defence 1.10 against Forest Green attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 87/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 54% | Draw 22% | Forest Green 24%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 53%, Forest Green 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (87 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Forest Green's trading profile (87 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Forest Green (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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