Hartlepool 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hartlepool at 50%, yet in-form Stevenage provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hartlepool vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to The Suit Direct Stadium to face Hartlepool in League Two, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Hartlepool (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Suit Direct Stadium, Hartlepool have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hartlepool are significantly better at The Suit Direct Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Stevenage are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hartlepool lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hartlepool half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 44% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 44% | Stevenage 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 1.30 xG and Stevenage 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 0.851 / defence 1.071 | Stevenage attack 0.528 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.139. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Hartlepool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Hartlepool games / 26 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 50% | Draw 34% | Stevenage 16%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 2.00 | Draw 2.94 | Stevenage 6.25. Hartlepool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hartlepool at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hartlepool if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Hartlepool 70% | Stevenage 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 50% | Draw 34% | Stevenage 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Hartlepool 1.30 / Stevenage 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 0.851 / def 1.071 | Stevenage attack 0.528 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Hartlepool (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Stevenage xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Stevenage kick off?
Hartlepool vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Hartlepool 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Hartlepool vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Stevenage part of?
Hartlepool vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 50% chance of winning, Stevenage a 16% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hartlepool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Hartlepool and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Hartlepool 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Hartlepool and Stevenage in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hartlepool's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.53x) against Hartlepool's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hartlepool Win
50%
1.99
34%
2.97
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
1.95
0.64
Stevenage xG
1.99
50%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
4%
22.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Hartlepool and 0.64 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Hartlepool have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 8W 5D 12L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 5W 9D 11L from 25 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Hartlepool against 0.96 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hartlepool have posted 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Hartlepool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hartlepool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hartlepool are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.92 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 25 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 5W 9D 11L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Stevenage away?
Hartlepool's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 2.00 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hartlepool have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hartlepool
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 0, Stevenage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Hartlepool 1-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 58%, Stevenage 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hartlepool) and 50% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Stevenage in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hartlepool's recent matches and 25% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hartlepool vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hartlepool's recent games and 50% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Hartlepool and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Hartlepool and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 1.30 xG and Stevenage 0.64 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Stevenage attack 0.53 / defence 1.37, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 50% | Draw 34% | Stevenage 16%, with Hartlepool to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 44%, Stevenage 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hartlepool 1.16 PPG, Stevenage 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.