Hartlepool 0-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hartlepool at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hartlepool vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to The Suit Direct Stadium to face Hartlepool in League Two, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Hartlepool (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at The Suit Direct Stadium, Hartlepool have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Crawley Town's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Hartlepool against 1.60 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Hartlepool, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Crawley Town — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Hartlepool winning.
The historical record gives Hartlepool a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Hartlepool half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 55% versus Crawley Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 47% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 1.89 xG and Crawley Town 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 1.055 / defence 1.306 | Crawley Town attack 0.726 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.033. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing Hartlepool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 89 Hartlepool games / 89 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 57% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Crawley Town 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Hartlepool (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hartlepool are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Hartlepool 80% | Crawley Town 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 57% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Hartlepool 1.89 / Crawley Town 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 1.055 / def 1.306 | Crawley Town attack 0.726 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Hartlepool (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Crawley Town xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Crawley Town kick off?
Hartlepool vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Crawley Town?
Hartlepool 0 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Hartlepool vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Crawley Town part of?
Hartlepool vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 57% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hartlepool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hartlepool and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): Hartlepool 3W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Hartlepool and Crawley Town in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hartlepool's attack at 1.05x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.73x) against Hartlepool's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 89/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hartlepool Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.00
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
2.87
0.98
Crawley Town xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
3%
37.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Hartlepool and 0.98 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 89 outings, Hartlepool have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 22W 27D 40L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Crawley Town's form line: 27W 22D 40L from 89 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Hartlepool against 1.16 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hartlepool have posted 1.27 PPG from 44 outings (13W 17D 14L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 9W 10D 25L from 44 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hartlepool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hartlepool are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.13 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 89 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 22W 27D 40L in their last 89 games (1.04 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 27W 22D 40L in their last 89 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Crawley Town away?
Hartlepool's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 1.27 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hartlepool have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hartlepool
0
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 3, Crawley Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Hartlepool 0-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Crawley Town?
Hartlepool have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 57%, Crawley Town 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hartlepool) and 54% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool have failed to score in 32% of games; Crawley Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hartlepool's games and 57% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hartlepool vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hartlepool's recent games and 54% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hartlepool and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hartlepool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Hartlepool 0-2 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 1.89 xG and Crawley Town 0.98 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hartlepool fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Crawley Town outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 1.05 / defence 1.31 against Crawley Town attack 0.73 / defence 1.48, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 57% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 18%, with Hartlepool to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 47%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hartlepool 1.04 PPG, Crawley Town 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.