Harrogate Town 0-2 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sutton Utd at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Harrogate Town host Sutton Utd at EnviroVent Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Harrogate Town — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Harrogate Town's home record at EnviroVent Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Sutton Utd have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sutton Utd's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sutton Utd — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Harrogate Town, 1 for Sutton Utd and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Sutton Utd winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Harrogate Town in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sutton Utd in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 53% versus Sutton Utd 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 62% | Sutton Utd 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.37 xG and Sutton Utd 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.985 / defence 1.481 | Sutton Utd attack 0.961 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.116. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Harrogate Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Harrogate Town games / 45 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 33% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 42%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Sutton Utd 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sutton Utd are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Harrogate Town 60% | Sutton Utd 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: EnviroVent Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 33% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Harrogate Town 1.37 / Sutton Utd 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 0.985 / def 1.481 | Sutton Utd attack 0.961 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Sutton Utd xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at EnviroVent Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd?
Harrogate Town 0 - 2 Sutton Utd.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at EnviroVent Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd part of?
Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 33% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Harrogate Town 0W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 1W.
What form are Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd in?
Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Harrogate Town's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Harrogate Town's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
33%
3.06
25%
4.03
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.96
1.59
Sutton Utd xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
7%
14.96
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.59 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Harrogate Town have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 11D 20L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sutton Utd's form line: 21W 10D 14L from 45 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Sutton Utd are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Harrogate Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Harrogate Town have posted 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (6W 7D 9L).
On the road, Sutton Utd have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
The Goals Picture
Harrogate Town are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.49 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 21W 10D 14L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Sutton Utd away?
Sutton Utd's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.14 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Harrogate Town or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Harrogate Town have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Harrogate Town's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Harrogate Town
1
Draws
4
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Harrogate Town have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Harrogate Town 2-2 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 64%, Sutton Utd 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Harrogate Town) and 46% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Harrogate Town play Sutton Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Harrogate Town's games and 54% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 46% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Harrogate Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sutton Utd cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Harrogate Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Harrogate Town 0-2 at EnviroVent Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.37 xG and Sutton Utd 1.59 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.48 against Sutton Utd attack 0.96 / defence 1.36, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 33% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 42%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 62%, Sutton Utd 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.