Grimsby 1-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grimsby vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Stockport County travel to Blundell Park to take on Grimsby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grimsby stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Grimsby's home record at Blundell Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stockport County — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stockport County are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Grimsby, 1 for Stockport County and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Grimsby trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Stockport County trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grimsby 57% versus Stockport County 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 45% | Stockport County 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.45 xG and Stockport County 2.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 1.083 / defence 1.505 | Stockport County attack 1.401 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.332. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — the away xG of 2.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Grimsby games / 75 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 17% | Draw 17% | Stockport County 65%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 5.88 | Draw 5.88 | Stockport County 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.26 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grimsby 90% | Stockport County 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 17% | Draw 17% | Stockport County 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 72% | xG Grimsby 1.45 / Stockport County 2.81 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 1.083 / def 1.505 | Stockport County attack 1.401 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
2.81
Stockport County xG
72%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs Stockport County kick off?
Grimsby vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Grimsby 1 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Grimsby vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Stockport County part of?
Grimsby vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 17% chance of winning, Stockport County a 65% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Grimsby and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Stockport County?
Record (3 meetings): Grimsby 2W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Grimsby and Stockport County in?
Grimsby (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Stockport County (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (1.08) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 2.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
17%
5.77
17%
5.76
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
2 – 2
5.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Grimsby xG
Total xG
4.26
2.81
Stockport County xG
5.77
17%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
6%
16.58
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
1%
95.71
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Grimsby and 2.81 for Stockport County, a combined total of 4.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grimsby come into this having played 75 games, going 22W 24D 29L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.84 PPG from 75 outings (39W 21D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Grimsby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grimsby's home form reads 12W 13D 12L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.68 points per game from 37 outings (18W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Grimsby are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.68 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 22W 24D 29L in their last 75 games (1.20 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 39W 21D 15L in their last 75 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.32 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Grimsby or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stockport County in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grimsby and Stockport County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Grimsby's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Grimsby
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Grimsby have won 2, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Grimsby 1-3 Stockport County.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 62%, Stockport County 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Grimsby) and 54% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Grimsby keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Grimsby's games and 60% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grimsby vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Grimsby's recent games and 54% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and Stockport County tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Grimsby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Grimsby 1-3 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.45 xG and Stockport County 2.81 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.08 / defence 1.50 against Stockport County attack 1.40 / defence 0.91, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 17% | Draw 17% | Stockport County 65%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 45%, Stockport County 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Grimsby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.