Gillingham 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gillingham host Stevenage at MEMS Priestfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gillingham — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at MEMS Priestfield Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEMS Priestfield Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stevenage — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Gillingham trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Stevenage trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 40% versus Stevenage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 28% | Stevenage 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 0.73 xG and Stevenage 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.564 / defence 0.960 | Stevenage attack 1.011 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.035. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.564 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Gillingham games / 59 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 41%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Stevenage 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 10% | Stevenage 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: MEMS Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Gillingham 0.73 / Stevenage 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.564 / def 0.960 | Stevenage attack 1.011 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Stevenage xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Stevenage kick off?
Gillingham vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Stevenage?
Gillingham 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Gillingham vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Stevenage part of?
Gillingham vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 26% chance of winning, Stevenage a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Gillingham and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gillingham and Stevenage in?
Gillingham (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Stevenage (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gillingham's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
26%
3.88
33%
3.02
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Gillingham xG
Total xG
1.73
1.00
Stevenage xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.00 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Gillingham have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 21D 27L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 20W 15D 23L from 58 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gillingham.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gillingham have posted 0.97 PPG from 29 outings (6W 10D 13L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 5W 9D 15L from 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
The Goals Picture
Gillingham are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.09 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 10W 21D 27L in their last 58 games (0.88 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Stevenage away?
Gillingham's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 0.97 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gillingham and Stevenage runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gillingham
1
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 0, Stevenage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 2 January 2023, when Stevenage 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 28%, Stevenage 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Gillingham) and 48% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 55% of games; Stevenage in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Gillingham's recent matches and 45% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Gillingham's recent games and 48% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gillingham and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MEMS Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Gillingham and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 0.73 xG and Stevenage 1.00 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.56 / defence 0.96 against Stevenage attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 12/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 26% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 41%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 28%, Stevenage 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.