Gillingham 0-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Priestfield Stadium plays host to Gillingham versus Crewe in League Two, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gillingham have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Priestfield Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Crewe's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Crewe's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Gillingham against 1.50 for Crewe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gillingham lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Crewe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gillingham — key trading statistics (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Crewe — key trading statistics (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 36% versus Crewe 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 28% | Crewe 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.05 xG and Crewe 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.763 / defence 0.862 | Crewe attack 1.085 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.291. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 86 Gillingham games / 85 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 31% | Draw 30% | Crewe 39%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Crewe 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gillingham 50% | Crewe 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 31% | Draw 30% | Crewe 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Gillingham 1.05 / Crewe 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.763 / def 0.862 | Crewe attack 1.085 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Crewe (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Crewe xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Crewe kick off?
Gillingham vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Crewe?
Gillingham 0 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Gillingham vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Crewe part of?
Gillingham vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 31% chance of winning, Crewe a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gillingham and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crewe?
Record (5 meetings): Gillingham 2W | Draws 1 | Crewe 2W.
What form are Gillingham and Crewe in?
Gillingham (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Crewe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.76x the league average against Crewe's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (1.08x) against Gillingham's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 86/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
31%
3.21
30%
3.33
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.26
1.21
Crewe xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.21 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gillingham's recent record stands at 31W 21D 33L from 85 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 32W 27D 26L across 85 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Gillingham against 1.45 for Crewe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 18W 12D 12L from 42 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crewe's away record stands at 10W 16D 16L across 42 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gillingham are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.35 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Crewe in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 31W 21D 33L in their last 85 games (1.34 PPG), while Crewe have gone 32W 27D 26L in their last 85 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Crewe away?
Gillingham's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.57 PPG; Crewe away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Crewe in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gillingham have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Crewe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gillingham
3
Draws
4
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crewe?
From 10 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 3, Crewe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 40%, Crewe 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Gillingham) and 48% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 31% of games; Crewe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gillingham's recent matches and 52% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Gillingham's recent games and 48% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Crewe tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Crewe in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gillingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham and Crewe finished level at 0-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.05 xG and Crewe 1.21 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Crewe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.76 / defence 0.86 against Crewe attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 31% | Draw 30% | Crewe 39%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 28%, Crewe 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crewe's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.34 PPG, Crewe 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.98 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.