Forest Green 0-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forest Green vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stockport County make the trip to The Bolt New Lawn to face Forest Green in League Two, Regular Season - 41. The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Forest Green (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Forest Green's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at The Bolt New Lawn this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stockport County's overall League Two record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Forest Green, 1.40 for Stockport County — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Forest Green 0W, Stockport County 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Forest Green — key trading statistics (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Stockport County — key trading statistics (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 47% versus Stockport County 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 47% | Stockport County 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 0.91 xG and Stockport County 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.642 / defence 1.113 | Stockport County attack 1.152 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.291. Forest Green's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Forest Green games / 84 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 20% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 54%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 1.85. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forest Green 20% | Stockport County 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 20% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Forest Green 0.91 / Stockport County 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.642 / def 1.113 | Stockport County attack 1.152 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Stockport County xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Stockport County kick off?
Forest Green vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Stockport County?
Forest Green 0 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Forest Green vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Stockport County part of?
Forest Green vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 20% chance of winning, Stockport County a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Forest Green and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Forest Green 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Forest Green and Stockport County in?
Forest Green (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Forest Green's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (1.15x) against Forest Green's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 39/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
20%
5.00
26%
3.89
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.56
1.65
Stockport County xG
5.00
20%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
4%
26.14
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.65 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forest Green's recent record stands at 14W 18D 53L from 85 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 43W 25D 17L across 85 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Forest Green heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Forest Green have managed 9W 6D 27L from 42 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 19W 11D 12L across 42 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Forest Green are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.65 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 14W 18D 53L in their last 85 games (0.71 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 43W 25D 17L in their last 85 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 0.79 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Forest Green or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Stockport County in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Forest Green
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Stockport County?
From 2 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 0, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Forest Green 0-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Forest Green and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 40%, Stockport County 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Forest Green) and 55% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Forest Green have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Forest Green's recent matches and 60% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Forest Green's recent games and 55% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Stockport County tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Forest Green.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Forest Green 0-3 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 0.91 xG and Stockport County 1.65 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Forest Green fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Stockport County outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.64 / defence 1.11 against Stockport County attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 20% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 54%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 47%, Stockport County 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Forest Green (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.