Crewe 0-0 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Swindon Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swindon Town make the trip to Mornflake Stadium to face Crewe in League Two, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Crewe (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Crewe have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crewe's home record at Mornflake Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Swindon Town's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Swindon Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Swindon Town's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Crewe against 1.10 for Swindon Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Crewe are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Crewe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Crewe and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Swindon Town half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 48% versus Swindon Town 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 48% | Swindon Town 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.20 xG and Swindon Town 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.763 / defence 1.442 | Swindon Town attack 0.920 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.350. Crewe's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Crewe games / 48 Swindon Town games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Crewe 25% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 51%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Swindon Town 1.96. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swindon Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crewe 20% | Swindon Town 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 25% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Crewe 1.20 / Swindon Town 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.763 / def 1.442 | Swindon Town attack 0.920 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Swindon Town xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Swindon Town kick off?
Crewe vs Swindon Town kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Swindon Town?
Crewe 0 - 0 Swindon Town.
Where is Crewe vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Swindon Town part of?
Crewe vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 25% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Crewe and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Swindon Town?
Record (4 meetings): Crewe 3W | Draws 1 | Swindon Town 0W.
What form are Crewe and Swindon Town in?
Crewe (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crewe's attack rating (0.76) and Swindon Town's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Swindon Town's attack (0.92x) against Crewe's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
25%
3.93
23%
4.31
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.99
1.79
Swindon Town xG
3.93
25%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
4%
23.57
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Crewe and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Crewe and 1.79 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crewe's recent record stands at 19W 12D 17L from 48 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Crewe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Swindon Town, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 21L across 48 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Swindon Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Crewe against 1.15 for Swindon Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 10W 4D 9L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swindon Town's away record stands at 2W 8D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Swindon Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crewe are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.62 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town in 71%.
Last 48 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Early Season
Swindon Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Swindon Town away?
Crewe's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.48 PPG; Swindon Town away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swindon Town won 0-3 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Swindon Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Crewe
3
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Swindon Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 4, Swindon Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Swindon Town 1-2 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Swindon Town?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 44%, Swindon Town 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Crewe and 70% for Swindon Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Crewe have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Crewe's games and 74% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crewe vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Crewe's matches and 70% of Swindon Town's.
Do Crewe and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crewe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Crewe and Swindon Town drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.20 xG and Swindon Town 1.79 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crewe fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Swindon Town landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.76 / defence 1.44 against Swindon Town attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 25% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 51%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 48%, Swindon Town 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swindon Town's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.44 PPG, Swindon Town 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Swindon Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.