Crawley Town 1-0 Barrow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Barrow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 41 as Crawley Town welcome Barrow to The People's Pension Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town at The People's Pension Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Barrow have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Barrow away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.10 PPG versus Barrow's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 1, Barrow 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Barrow in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 69% versus Barrow 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 59% | Barrow 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Barrow 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.986 / defence 1.235 | Barrow attack 0.635 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 1.099. Data: 39 Crawley Town games / 39 Barrow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 32% | Barrow 27%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Barrow 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Barrow 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Barrow | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 32% | Barrow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Crawley Town 1.12 / Barrow 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.986 / def 1.235 | Barrow attack 0.635 / def 1.144 | league avg home 0.996 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Barrow xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Barrow kick off?
Crawley Town vs Barrow kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Crawley Town 1 - 0 Barrow.
Where is Crawley Town vs Barrow being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Barrow part of?
Crawley Town vs Barrow is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance of winning, Barrow a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Crawley Town and Barrow will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Barrow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Barrow?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | Barrow 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Barrow in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Barrow (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.99x the league average against Barrow's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Barrow's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.08
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
1.98
0.86
Barrow xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Barrow expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.86 for Barrow, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 14W 9D 16L from 39 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Barrow, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 18L across 39 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.31 PPG, Barrow on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Barrow's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Barrow are on 0.87 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Barrow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Barrow in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Barrow have gone 8W 13D 18L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Barrow away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.26 PPG; Barrow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Barrow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Barrow in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Barrow runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Barrow won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Barrow specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Barrow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Barrow?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 4, Barrow have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Barrow last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Barrow 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Barrow?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Barrow see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 68%, Barrow 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Crawley Town) and 32% (Barrow).
On the defensive side: Barrow in 37%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Barrow in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Barrow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Barrow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 32% of Barrow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Barrow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Crawley Town's recent games and 32% of Barrow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Barrow tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Barrow in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Barrow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Barrow 1-0 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Barrow 0.86 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Barrow landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.99 / defence 1.24 against Barrow attack 0.64 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 32% | Barrow 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 59%, Barrow 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Barrow's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.31 PPG, Barrow 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.